CFP Energy Call Report - 26 January 2012
Yesterday gas and power again gave carbon the impetus to break up and out of its downtrend, with Dec12 EUAs trading up to a high of €7.73. While the energy complex held its gains, carbon ran out of momentum settling at €7.59. If the Dec12 EUA contract is to head to €8 it needs to close above €7.68 today and will need power and fuels to continue their rally.
Despite some midday profit taking, power finished strongly into the close and so far this morning's prices are higher as well. German power (Cal 13) closed at its highs for the day with a squeeze at the close, affirming the bullish sentiment around the contract. It remains to be seen whether German power (Cal 13) can reach and hold the interim target of €52.00 today or whether we will see a pullback into Friday.
Yesterday evening Ben Bernanke, the US Federal Reserve Chief, announced his expectations for US interest rates to remain low until the end of 2014. S&P and the EURUSD rallied on the move. EUR strength is positive indicator for CO2.
The EUA is again strong this morning as fuels and power continue a bullish week. The EUA has traded a 2012 high for the 3rd day out of 4 and is testing the upper limit of its long term down trend.
Economic events/data release (GMT):-
- Lithuania to auction 850,000 Spot EUAs on EEX (10:00 AM)
- Italy to sell Bills (10:00 AM)
- Chicago Fed Activity Index (13:30 PM)
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Underperforming Power
The energy sector has had a very subdued start to the new year. Despite cold weather forecasted for the February,…
| Commodity | Return (Daily) |
Return (Monthly) |
| EUA DEC 12 | 0.00% | 11.89% |
| EUA DEC 13 | 0.00% | 11.28% |
| CER Green | 0.00% | -5.90% |
| CER Dec 12 | 0.00% | -5.45% |
| CER DEC 13 | 0.00% | -3.60% |
| ERU Dec 12 | 0.00% | -6.62% |
| ERU Dec 13 | 0.00% | -3.56% |
| Oil (Brent) | 0.09% | 3.80% |
| German P 13 | 0.00% | -7.02% |
| German Base 1M | 0.00% | 2.54% |